Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Rain Seattle

Issued July 26, 2017 5:00 AM.

I want to thank Meteorologist Nick Eckstein for this information.

There has been no measurable rainfall at Seattle-Tacoma Airport since June 17 and the record for the most consecutive days without measurable rainfall is 51 days.
The current stretch for Seattle of 39 days, which includes today, is tied for the 11th longest on record: 9 days from the second longest and 12 days from the record longest.
The 14 longest stretches on record (since 1894 for Seattle and 1945 at Sea-Tac) are as follows; the dates indicates the last day of each stretch:

1.  51 days    1951-08-26
2.  48 days    2012-09-08
2.  48 days    1922-08-09
4.  45 days    1991-10-15
5.  43 days    1936-08-22
5.  43 days    1921-08-13
7.  42 days    1986-08-27
8.  41 days    1930-08-07
8.  41 days    1926-07-25
10. 40 days    1971-08-19
11. 39 days    2017-07-26 (Current, Ongoing)
11. 39 days    1997-08-19
13. 38 days    1945-07-20
13. 38 days    1928-08-11
According to Meteorologist Nick Eckstein;

“It appears that if the airport can get past Thursday morning's marine layer without a hundredth of an inch being squeezed out (and it seems likely that it does stay dry), there would be a fairly high chance that the streak extends to at least 47 days.  The GFS and European models continue strong ridging across the western US into next week, at times trying to migrate it close to the west coast for some potential hot days west of the Cascades from the weekend into next week.  Beyond the beginning of August, the forecast becomes more uncertain, but based on climatology and early indications from the European model, it's probably still more likely than not that KSEA gets to the 51 days and beyond with no measurable rain.  The GFS moves a trough into the Northwest with a chance of rain right as the critical August 7 potential record-tying day arrives, pushed along by strong energy moving across the Pacific next week, but it emanates that energy from Typhoon Noru (which it intensifies to a Super Typhoon) and Tropical Storm Kulap currently east of Japan, and it appears much too strong with them given their location and Fujiwhara dance with a blocking high over the central Pacific.  The European and GFS Ensembles are both weaker with the tropical systems and any energy that breaks away wouldn't be strong enough to break down the Central Pacific block, and in turn the western US ridge may continue to hold as well.”

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