The extended forecast out to May 19 suggests above normal temperatures and normal precipitation. This certainly is the case through this weekend especially the above normal temperatures. However the map below for May 12 shows a trough moving in from the north and this would indicate different conditions. Most of the extended forecasts show altering patterns of upper level ridge of high pressure (that is forming now) and troughs of low pressure dropping down from the north. Bottom line hard to have much confidence in having a stable pattern.
500 mb map at 18,000 feet
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