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Friday Update Issued Friday 2-20-09 11:30 am
Extended Outlook For Period Tuesday February 24 to March 7, 2009
There is no secret that our snowpack is down given the minor precipitation that has occurred for the period from February 1 to February 19, 2009 as many locations in the Central West Cascades received only 0.43 inches of precipitation (normal for same period is closer to 6.3 inches) Also during this period temperatures were above average by almost 4 degrees. Thus there is small wonder why the snowpack in many places is close to 60% of normal.
We will we getting more snow? The 10 to 15 day forecast models continue to indicate above average precipitation and below average temperatures. I have a high level of confidence on the temperature forecast but just average confidence on the precipitation. However, we are in a La Nina phase (below average sea surface temperatures) and this usually brings below average temperatures and above average precipitation to the Northwest.
If the map (18,000 feet) above, which is forecast for Sunday March 1, verifies than the West Cascades should get a lot of snow.
Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for enviromental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it