Weekly Update Friday 2-27-09

Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar

Friday Update Issued Friday 2-27-09 6:30 am
Extended Outlook For Period Monday March 2 to March 7, 2009

Many locations in the West Cascades (at 4500 feet and above) received from 10 to 20 inches of new snow this past Wednesday and Thursday. Will this trend continue? The 10to 15 day forecast models continue the trend of below average temperatures and above average snowfall for the mountains. More lowland snow in March for the Puget Sound? That is possible.

If the map (18,000 feet) above, which is forecast for Tuesday March 3, verifies than the West Cascades should get above average snow. The red arrow shows the storm track that is set up for the week, storms will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska


Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for environmental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Friday update 2-20-09

Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar

Friday Update Issued Friday 2-20-09 11:30 am
Extended Outlook For Period Tuesday February 24 to March 7, 2009
There is no secret that our snowpack is down given the minor precipitation that has occurred for the period from February 1 to February 19, 2009 as many locations in the Central West Cascades received only 0.43 inches of precipitation (normal for same period is closer to 6.3 inches) Also during this period temperatures were above average by almost 4 degrees. Thus there is small wonder why the snowpack in many places is close to 60% of normal.

We will we getting more snow? The 10 to 15 day forecast models continue to indicate above average precipitation and below average temperatures. I have a high level of confidence on the temperature forecast but just average confidence on the precipitation. However, we are in a La Nina phase (below average sea surface temperatures) and this usually brings below average temperatures and above average precipitation to the Northwest.

If the map (18,000 feet) above, which is forecast for Sunday March 1, verifies than the West Cascades should get a lot of snow.


Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for enviromental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Friday update 2-13-09

Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar

Friday Update Issued Friday 2-13-09 11:30 am
A weather system will be to the south of the region during the weekend and will bring some clouds that move up from the south and this will bring the chance of light precipitation at times. The greatest chance will be later today and then again on Sunday. The uncertainty to the forecast is how much precipitation will occur on Sunday and at this point it should be light but lower confidence in this since models have been showing some inconsistency in this. Finally, with this pattern the greatest chance of precipitation will be for an area south of Mt Rainier. This pattern will contiune into Monday as well

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for enviromental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Where is the Snow

Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar
Issued Sunday 2-8-09 8 am, Extended Forecast

The forecast above is for Wednesday 2-11-09 and shows an upper level low off the Oregon Coast and then dives towards the south. This pattern keeps in place till February 21, so the Northwest will have below average temperatures and below average rainfall-snowfall. We will still get some rainfall-snowfall but it will tend to be on the light side. Where is the snow? The Sierra in California and Utah are the winners with this pattern. The data for the snowpack chart is taken from; Data from United States Natural Resources Conservation Service, Division of the USDA ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/wa_swepctnormal_update.pdf

Snowpack as Percent of Normal for Washington 2-8-09

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31, 7 PM
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

Custom Forecast
For custom forecast for the West Coast Mountains or on a worldwide basis contact us. Also if you need forecasts for enviromental purposes like monitoring major rain events, extended dry periods, or air quality, or frost call us, 425-869-1847. Email michaelfatwowweather.com, of course do not use the at when emailing me replace it with @. Just cut and paste it

Friday update

Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar
Issued Friday 2-6-09 11 am

A weak weather system is moving through the region and will bring some light snow showers to the mountains but the amounts should be light from 0.50 to 3 inches of new snow at 4000 feet and above for the West Cascades and Olympic today. Then a weak ridge of high pressure builds on Saturday for dry weather and a good dose of sun for many locations. Then later on Sunday a weather system moves in for the chance of some precipitation for the evening for the South Cascades and Olympics and the rest of the Cascades on Monday.

Extended forecasts indicate new mountain snow for Tuesday 2-10-09 and Wednesday 2-11-09

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115

More Snow for the Mountains and Rain for Lowlands?

Please visit this site every Friday as we plan to post our weekend Cascade forecasts.
Click here for current local radar
Will the Snow Return to the Mountains.

Extended forecast

The recent dry pattern might come to an end soon. Since January 13 Seattle rainfall has been less than 7% of normal. So many people that want rain and or mountain snow might be happy of the trends that we are seeing. The above map is for Sunday 2-8-09 and this indicates an upper level low off (this is 500 mb map at about 18,000 feet) the Washington Coast.This will swing inland and bring snow to the mountains and rain to the lowlands. Several forecast models agree on this so high level of confidence on this forecast. In fact forecast models bring another upper low in on Tuesday 2-10. Thus for Sunday 2-8-09 through Tuesday 2-10 we can expect above average precipation and below normal temperatures. What happens after Tuesday 2-10? That will bring an interesting challenge. Several forecast models indicate below average temperatures and below average precipation for 2-15 till 2-28. However, that is an extended forecast so lower confidence in that

Mountain Weather Seminar March 31
At the Seattle Mountaineers Clubhouse, No registration necessary. No fee. Members and non-members welcome. Weather is the biggest limiting factor for outdoor recreation in our marine climate. Understanding and -- more important -- predicting our mountain weather is a critical skill. Come learn from an expert. Mike Fagin is founder of Washington Online Weather (www.wowweather.com), a Mountaineers Alpine Scramble grad and a professional weather forecaster. Mike will give us an overview of "machinery" of western Washington weather - what forces give us wet or dry conditions? He will share his favorite sources of accurate mountain forecasts to check before leaving home. Then he will talk about forecasting in the field. What do various cloud formations portend? Does that shift of wind direction mean anything? Is that gray sky OK or is it time to turn tail and scat? If it's wet here, will it be better east of the passes? Mike Fagin forecasts not only in our area but also for major Himalayan expeditions. Reduce your mountain misery quotient. Learn skills to help you keep dry and happy.
Location: The Mountaineers
7700 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115