Big Rain Event West Snow East

Issued Monday 12-29 11 am
A strong weather system will move into the region later on Thursday, New Year's Day to bring some heavy rain to the lowlands of Western Washington. The forecast models have been consistent with this feature so I have a high level of confidence with this. Here are some early tentative rain amounts for the period Thursday New Year's Day 9 am to Friday 1-2-09 9:00 am for many location in Western Washington. Rain totals will be in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range for this period. Some spots on New Years Day might start out with some light snow early but that will be short lived. For Eastern Washington the forecast is much more difficult since cold air will be in place so snow is certainly a good possibility. The amounts of water equivalent from Thursday New Year's Day from 10 pm to Friday 1-2-09 10 pm is from 0.40 to 0.80 in water equivalent. If that is snow and not rain that would be about 3 to 8 inches of snow.

Finally, the map below is for the forecast period Thursday New Year's Day at 4 pm. This map is 850 mb which is for winds at the 5000 foot level. Notice off the coast the winds are from the southwest at 50 to 80 knots. These winds will tend to draw moisture from the ocean and these strong winds and moisture will shift inland during the evening of New Year's Day and on Friday 1-2-09. Thus, strong winds and heavy precipitation will be the rule. After this front passes snow levels will drop close to the surface for Western Washington on Friday evening 1-2-09 and into Saturday 1-3-09

Warming Trend

Map above is the 300 mb chart (location of jet stream) for the forecast period ending Sunday night 12-28. Notice the strong winds of about 150 miles per hour at the 30,000 foot level. These strong winds are westerly winds that bring mild moisture in from the Pacific. This west flow is the more typical pattern that we experience of precipitation on and off, freezing levels close to 3000 to 5000 feet. However, we are not expecting the excessively wet and warm (freezing levels close to 10,000 feet) "pineapple express."

With the snow on the ground and warmer temperatures along with rain this might generate some interesting stormwater flows.

This pattern should continue through the end of the year. Then starting January 3, 2009 or so another shot of colder air moves in, however, that is indeed in the extended forecast period so limited confidence. However, if this colder pattern occurs it will not be as cold as this modified arctic air that has been over the region since the middle of December.

Finally we have listed below the forecast for the period this Saturday 12-27 to Wednesday 12-31.

New Contest

Guess:

How much snowfall will occur at Sea Tac Airport between 12-15-08 till 1-15-09 12:01 AM

Prize:

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Seattle Snow Forecast

For this Wednesday a weather system drops from the north to bring snow to the lowlands. Amounts are always tricky but for the Greater Seattle Area it could be in the 1 to 4 inch range.



The temperatures will remain cold and hardy be above freezing between now through the weekend. There is a stronger weather system that moves in this weekend it if conditions are such this could be a major snow storm for the lowlands. Still too way to tell but if temperatures remain below freezing this might be in the 4 to 11 inch snowfall range for the Greater Seattle Area for the Saturday and or Sunday timeframe. Again it is too early to tell but this is worth monitoring.







Michael Fagin

West Coast Weather, LLC

Washington Online Weather

www.wowweather.com

Cascade Mountain Snow Update

Forecast models continue to indicate above average mountain snow for the forecast period through 12-26-08. The 500 mb (at about 18,000 feet) forecast map for 12-22-08 below shows a trough of low pressure just south of Washington and this pattern is good for mountain snow

Mountain Passes Temp. Closed

Updated 12-10-08. According to DOT the following passes will be closed now due to the forecasted snow storm. Then on Monday 12-15-08 conditions will be evaluated to determine if the pass will be reopened this season.Chinook Pass, Cayuse Pass, and North Cascades Hwy. are the Passes closed for at least now

Washington Cascade Winter Update

Issued Tuesday 12-9-08

Washington Cascade Winter Update

The ridge of high pressure that has been over the Northwest over the last several weeks has been steering the heaviest snowfall well to the north of the region. Also during the prior weeks temperatures have been above average. This combination of events has brought snowfall significantly below normal in all locations of the Washington Cascades.

However, the weather patterns will change starting this Friday (12-12-08) as a strong trough of low pressure and the associated cold front drops down from the northwest to bring some mountain snow later this Friday and into Saturday. The cold air will remain in place through 12-24-08 so any weather systems that move in will bring snowfall at the 3000 feet and above levels. So the bottom line is the extended forecast for the Northwest is indicating above average precipitation and below average temperatures through at least 12-24-08. It take time to bring the snowpack up but this will be a great trend. The map below is the 500 mb (at about 18,000 foot level) and shows conditions on Thursday 12-18-08. This would bring some very cold temperatures to the Northwest.

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Extended Outlook Updated 12-1-08

Issued Monday 12-1 6:30 am
Short Term Through 12-10-08
The general weather pattern will bring above average temperatures and close to average precipitation so for skiers that is not a good recipe for snow in the Cascades

Extended 12-12-08 to 12-15-08
The patterns change from a west to east flow (zonal flow- above average temperatures) to a more northerly to northwest flow cool, below average temperatures and a good recipe for snow in the Cascades

Extended Contest for Snowshoes
If you have not gotten in your guess yet we have extended the period to 12 pm today
New Hints:
As of this morning there is 9 inches of snow at Mt. Baker (4200 feet)
Based on the above forecast we think they range of snow on the ground on 12-15-08 at Mt Baker would be between 35 to 55 inches.
Contest
Guess how much snow will be on the ground at Mt Baker (4200 feet) on 12-15-08 at 12:01 am

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