Update 11-30-08

Cooler Pattern

Forecast models indicate a cooler pattern starting December 10 which can bring some mountain snow to the Washington Cascades.

Winter Outlook

Recent Conditions

The month of November has been wet especially the first half of the month. Stampede Pass in the Central Cascades at 4000 feet through 11-24-08 recorded 16.56 of precipitation and the average for the entire month is 12.15 inches. However there where four days in which much the precipitation occurred 11-4=1.04 inches, 11-6=2.83 inches, 11-1=1.24 inches, and 11-12 6.74 inches.

However, since most of the precipitation occurred while there was a strong and warm southwest flow and at times a Pineapple Express there was little in the way of snowfall relative to average.


Snow on ground 11-24-08
Paradise=4 inches
Stevens Pass=4 inches
Baker=15 inches

Average snowfall during November
Stevens Pass=70 inches
Paradise=90 inches
Baker=No info

Average snow on the ground Nov.
Stevens Pass=15 inches
Paradise=26 inches
Baker=25 inches


Winter Forecast

The winter forecast for the Pacific Northwest generally lean heavily on the sea surface conditions of the Equatorial Waters off South America. When the sea surface temperatures are below normal, La Nina , then the Northwest winter generally will get above average mountain snowfall.

This was the case last year. When there is above average sea surface temperatures, El Nino, then the Northwest winter will generally getbelow average mountain snowfall.

Extended forecast models really struggle to come up with a forecast when there is neither a La Nina nor a El Nino in place. In fact that is what the current situation is and therefore many of the forecast models suggest average mountain snow. Of course average can be deceiving since we can get no snowfall for 2 weeks then for another 2 week period we can have excessive snowfall. The best way to
track snowfall forecast for this season is to monitor the 7 to 15 day forecast which we will do when there is a good signal

Washington Online Weather
www.wowweather.com

PS With this information you should be able to make a good guess for the contest to win snowshoes Win Atlas Snowshoes Guess: How much snow will be on the the ground at Mt. Baker (4200 feet) on 12-15-08 12:01 am To enter contest go to ttp://www.snohomish.org/

Mountain snow for later this week

Issued Sunday 11-16-08
Most forecast models show an upper level low and associated cold front moving in the Thursday to Friday timeframe of this coming week with amounts for snow at 5000 feet and above for the West Cascades. Amounts of new snow (cumulative) could be in the 12 to 20 inch range

West Coast Weather, LLC
www.westcoastweather.com

Northwest Outlook

Issued November 15, 2008
This winter in the Northwest should bring average temperatures and close to average snowfall